Increased Amazon carbon emissions mainly from decline in law enforcement.

The Amazon forest carbon sink is declining, mainly as a result of land-use and climate change1-4. Here we investigate how changes in law enforcement of environmental protection policies may have affected the Amazonian carbon balance between 2010 and 2018 compared with 2019 and 2020, based on atmospheric CO2 vertical profiles5,6, deforestation7 and fire data8, as well as infraction notices related to illegal deforestation9. We estimate that Amazonia carbon emissions increased from a mean of 0.24 ± 0.08 PgC year-1 in 2010-2018 to 0.44 ± 0.10 PgC year-1 in 2019 and 0.52 ± 0.10 PgC year-1 in 2020 (± uncertainty). The observed increases in deforestation were 82% and 77% (94% accuracy) and burned area were 14% and 42% in 2019 and 2020 compared with the 2010-2018 mean, respectively. We find that the numbers of notifications of infractions against flora decreased by 30% and 54% and fines paid by 74% and 89% in 2019 and 2020, respectively. Carbon losses during 2019-2020 were comparable with those of the record warm El Niño (2015-2016) without an extreme drought event. Statistical tests show that the observed differences between the 2010-2018 mean and 2019-2020 are unlikely to have arisen by chance. The changes in the carbon budget of Amazonia during 2019-2020 were mainly because of western Amazonia becoming a carbon source. Our results indicate that a decline in law enforcement led to increases in deforestation, biomass burning and forest degradation, which increased carbon emissions and enhanced drying and warming of the Amazon forests.

Tree-ring oxygen isotopes record a decrease in Amazon dry season rainfall over the past 40 years.

Extant climate observations suggest the dry season over large parts of the Amazon Basin has become longer and drier over recent decades. However, such possible intensification of the Amazon dry season and its underlying causes are still a matter of debate. Here we used oxygen isotope ratios in tree rings (δ18OTR) from six floodplain trees from the western Amazon to assess changes in past climate. Our analysis shows that δ18OTR of these trees is negatively related to inter-annual variability of precipitation during the dry season over large parts of the Amazon Basin, consistent with a Rayleigh rainout model. Furthermore δ18OTR increases by approximately 2‰ over the last four decades (~ 1970-2014) providing evidence of an Amazon drying trend independent from satellite and in situ rainfall observations. Using a Rayleigh rainout framework, we estimate basin-wide dry season rainfall to have decreased by up to 30%. The δ18OTR record further suggests such drying trend may not be unprecedented over the past 80 years. Analysis of δ18OTR with sea surface temperatures indicates a strong role of a warming Tropical North Atlantic Ocean in driving this long-term increase in δ18OTR and decrease in dry season rainfall. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00382-021-06046-7.

Paired analysis of tree ring width and carbon isotopes indicates when controls on tropical tree growth change from light to water limitations.

Light and water availability are likely to vary over the lifespan of closed-canopy forest trees, with understory trees experiencing greater limitations to growth by light and canopy trees greater limitation due to drought. As drought and shade have opposing effects on isotope discrimination (Δ13C), paired measurement of ring width and Δ13C can potentially be used to differentiate between water and light limitations on tree growth. We tested this approach for Cedrela trees from three tropical forests in Bolivia and Mexico that differ in rainfall and canopy structure. Using lifetime ring width and Δ13C data for trees of up to and over 200 years old, we assessed how controls on tree growth changed from understory to the canopy. Growth and Δ13C are mostly anti-correlated in the understory, but this anti-correlation disappeared or weakened when trees reached the canopy, especially at the wettest site. This indicates that understory growth variation is controlled by photosynthetic carbon assimilation due to variation in light levels. Once trees reached the canopy, inter-annual variation in growth and Δ13C at one of the dry sites showed positive correlations, indicating that inter-annual variation in growth is driven by variation in water stress affecting stomatal conductance. Paired analysis of ring widths and carbon isotopes provides significant insight in what environmental factors control growth over a tree's life; strong light limitations for understory trees in closed-canopy moist forests switched to drought stress for (sub)canopy trees in dry forests. We show that combined isotope and ring width measurements can significantly improve our insights in tree functioning and be used to disentangle limitations due to shade from those due to drought.

Amazonia as a carbon source linked to deforestation and climate change.

Amazonia hosts the Earth's largest tropical forests and has been shown to be an important carbon sink over recent decades1-3. This carbon sink seems to be in decline, however, as a result of factors such as deforestation and climate change1-3. Here we investigate Amazonia's carbon budget and the main drivers responsible for its change into a carbon source. We performed 590 aircraft vertical profiling measurements of lower-tropospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide at four sites in Amazonia from 2010 to 20184. We find that total carbon emissions are greater in eastern Amazonia than in the western part, mostly as a result of spatial differences in carbon-monoxide-derived fire emissions. Southeastern Amazonia, in particular, acts as a net carbon source (total carbon flux minus fire emissions) to the atmosphere. Over the past 40 years, eastern Amazonia has been subjected to more deforestation, warming and moisture stress than the western part, especially during the dry season, with the southeast experiencing the strongest trends5-9. We explore the effect of climate change and deforestation trends on carbon emissions at our study sites, and find that the intensification of the dry season and an increase in deforestation seem to promote ecosystem stress, increase in fire occurrence, and higher carbon emissions in the eastern Amazon. This is in line with recent studies that indicate an increase in tree mortality and a reduction in photosynthesis as a result of climatic changes across Amazonia1,10.

Global tree-ring analysis reveals rapid decrease in tropical tree longevity with temperature.

Forests are the largest terrestrial biomass pool, with over half of this biomass stored in the highly productive tropical lowland forests. The future evolution of forest biomass depends critically on the response of tree longevity and growth rates to future climate. We present an analysis of the variation in tree longevity and growth rate using tree-ring data of 3,343 populations and 438 tree species and assess how climate controls growth and tree longevity across world biomes. Tropical trees grow, on average, two times faster compared to trees from temperate and boreal biomes and live significantly shorter, on average (186 ± 138 y compared to 322 ± 201 y outside the tropics). At the global scale, growth rates and longevity covary strongly with temperature. Within the warm tropical lowlands, where broadleaf species dominate the vegetation, we find consistent decreases in tree longevity with increasing aridity, as well as a pronounced reduction in longevity above mean annual temperatures of 25.4 °C. These independent effects of temperature and water availability on tree longevity in the tropics are consistent with theoretical predictions of increases in evaporative demands at the leaf level under a warmer and drier climate and could explain observed increases in tree mortality in tropical forests, including the Amazon, and shifts in forest composition in western Africa. Our results suggest that conditions supporting only lower tree longevity in the tropical lowlands are likely to expand under future drier and especially warmer climates.

White coat adherence effect on glucose control in adult individuals with diabetes.

BACKGROUND: White coat adherence (WCA) is defined as an increased adherence to treatment regimens directly before a visit with a healthcare provider. Little is known on the effect of WCA on glucose control in adult patients with diabetes mellitus. METHODS: The present study is based on 618 CGM-observations of 276 patients with diabetes treated between January 2013 and July 2018. The analysis compares data from the 3 days prior to a visit (p1) with the preceding 25 days (p2). RESULTS: Sensor use was higher during p1 than p2 (92.8 ± 7.3% vs 88.8 ± 7.5%; p < 0.001). Mean glucose [MG] and coefficient of variation [CV] were lower in p1 compared to p2 (MG 163.9 ± 39.2 mg/dL vs 166.9 ± 35.7 mg/dL, p = 0.001; CV 33.5 ± 8.4% vs 36.0 ± 7.0%, p < 0.001; respectively). Time in range (70-180 mg/dL) was higher in p1 than p2 (61.4 ± 21.2% vs 60.0 ± 18.4%, p = 0.002). Sensitivity-analysis showed that WCA effect was mainly detected in patients with HbA1c > 7% [53 mmol/mol]. CONCLUSION: This study reveals a WCA effect on pre-visit glucose control in adult patients with diabetes. The effect was most pronounced in patients with moderate to poor glycemic control. In these patients, analysis of CGM data should encompass a minimum of 1 to 2 weeks prior to a consultation.

Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth's tropical forests.

The sensitivity of tropical forest carbon to climate is a key uncertainty in predicting global climate change. Although short-term drying and warming are known to affect forests, it is unknown if such effects translate into long-term responses. Here, we analyze 590 permanent plots measured across the tropics to derive the equilibrium climate controls on forest carbon. Maximum temperature is the most important predictor of aboveground biomass (-9.1 megagrams of carbon per hectare per degree Celsius), primarily by reducing woody productivity, and has a greater impact per °C in the hottest forests (>32.2°C). Our results nevertheless reveal greater thermal resilience than observations of short-term variation imply. To realize the long-term climate adaptation potential of tropical forests requires both protecting them and stabilizing Earth's climate.

Large apparent growth increases in boreal forests inferred from tree-rings are an artefact of sampling biases.

Tree rings are thought to be a powerful tool to reconstruct historical growth changes and have been widely used to assess tree responses to global warming. Demographic inferences suggest, however, that typical sampling procedures induce spurious trends in growth reconstructions. Here we use the world's largest single tree-ring dataset (283,536 trees from 136,621 sites) from Quebec, Canada, to assess to what extent growth reconstructions based on these - and thus any similar - data might be affected by this problem. Indeed, straightforward growth rate reconstructions based on these data suggest a six-fold increase in radial growth of black spruce (Picea mariana) from ~0.5 mm yr-1 in 1800 to ~2.5 mm yr-1 in 1990. While the strong correlation (R2 = 0.98) between this increase and that of atmospheric CO2 could suggest a causal relationship, we here unambiguously demonstrate that this growth trend is an artefact of sampling biases caused by the absence of old, fast-growing trees (cf. "slow-grower survivorship bias") and of young, slow-growing trees (cf. "big-tree selection bias") in the dataset. At the moment, we cannot envision how to remedy the issue of incomplete representation of cohorts in existing large-scale tree-ring datasets. Thus, innovation will be needed before such datasets can be used for growth rate reconstructions.

Have Synergies Between Nitrogen Deposition and Atmospheric CO2 Driven the Recent Enhancement of the Terrestrial Carbon Sink?

The terrestrial carbon sink has increased since the turn of this century at a time of increased fossil fuel burning, yet the mechanisms enhancing this sink are not fully understood. Here we assess the hypothesis that regional increases in nitrogen deposition since the early 2000s has alleviated nitrogen limitation and worked in tandem with enhanced CO2 fertilization to increase ecosystem productivity and carbon sequestration, providing a causal link between the parallel increases in emissions and the global land carbon sink. We use the Community Land Model (CLM4.5-BGC) to estimate the influence of changes in atmospheric CO2, nitrogen deposition, climate, and their interactions to changes in net primary production and net biome production. We focus on two periods, 1901-2016 and 1990-2016, to estimate changes in land carbon fluxes relative to historical and contemporary baselines, respectively. We find that over the historical period, nitrogen deposition (14%) and carbon-nitrogen synergy (14%) were significant contributors to the current terrestrial carbon sink, suggesting that long-term increases in nitrogen deposition led to a substantial increase in CO2 fertilization. However, relative to the contemporary baseline, changes in nitrogen deposition and carbon-nitrogen synergy had no substantial contribution to the 21st century increase in global carbon uptake. Nonetheless, we find that increased nitrogen deposition in East Asia since the early 1990s contributed 50% to the overall increase in net biome production over this region, highlighting the importance of carbon-nitrogen interactions. Therefore, potential large-scale changes in nitrogen deposition could have a significant impact on terrestrial carbon cycling and future climate.

Contrasting controls on tree ring isotope variation for Amazon floodplain and terra firme trees.

Isotopes in tropical trees rings can improve our understanding of tree responses to climate. We assessed how climate and growing conditions affect tree-ring oxygen and carbon isotopes (δ18OTR and δ13CTR) in four Amazon trees. We analysed within-ring isotope variation for two terra firme (non-flooded) and two floodplain trees growing at sites with varying seasonality. We find distinct intra-annual patterns of δ18OTR and δ13CTR driven mostly by seasonal variation in weather and source water δ18O. Seasonal variation in isotopes was lowest for the tree growing under the wettest conditions. Tree ring cellulose isotope models based on existing theory reproduced well observed within-ring variation with possible contributions of both stomatal and mesophyll conductance to variation in δ13CTR. Climate analysis reveal that terra firme δ18OTR signals were related to basin-wide precipitation, indicating a source water δ18O influence, while floodplain trees recorded leaf enrichment effects related to local climate. Thus, intrinsically different processes (source water vs leaf enrichment) affect δ18OTR in the two different species analysed. These differences are likely a result of both species-specific traits and of the contrasting growing conditions in the floodplains and terra firme environments. Simultaneous analysis of δ13CTR and δ18OTR supports this interpretation as it shows strongly similar intra-annual patterns for both isotopes in the floodplain trees arising from a common control by leaf stomatal conductance, while terra firme trees showed less covariation between the two isotopes. Our results are interesting from a plant physiological perspective and have implications for climate reconstructions as trees record intrinsically different processes.

Differences in leaf thermoregulation and water use strategies between three co-occurring Atlantic forest tree species.

Given anticipated climate changes, it is crucial to understand controls on leaf temperatures including variation between species in diverse ecosystems. In the first study of leaf energy balance in tropical montane forests, we observed current leaf temperature patterns on 3 tree species in the Atlantic forest, Brazil, over a 10-day period and assessed whether and why patterns may vary among species. We found large leaf-to-air temperature differences (maximum 18.3 °C) and high leaf temperatures (over 35 °C) despite much lower air temperatures (maximum 22 °C). Leaf-to-air temperature differences were influenced strongly by radiation, whereas leaf temperatures were also influenced by air temperature. Leaf energy balance modelling informed by our measurements showed that observed differences in leaf temperature between 2 species were due to variation in leaf width and stomatal conductance. The results suggest a trade-off between water use and leaf thermoregulation; Miconia cabussu has more conservative water use compared with Alchornea triplinervia due to lower transpiration under high vapour pressure deficit, with the consequence of higher leaf temperatures under thermal stress conditions. We highlight the importance of leaf functional traits for leaf thermoregulation and also note that the high radiation levels that occur in montane forests may exacerbate the threat from increasing air temperatures.

21st Century drought-related fires counteract the decline of Amazon deforestation carbon emissions.

Tropical carbon emissions are largely derived from direct forest clearing processes. Yet, emissions from drought-induced forest fires are, usually, not included in national-level carbon emission inventories. Here we examine Brazilian Amazon drought impacts on fire incidence and associated forest fire carbon emissions over the period 2003-2015. We show that despite a 76% decline in deforestation rates over the past 13 years, fire incidence increased by 36% during the 2015 drought compared to the preceding 12 years. The 2015 drought had the largest ever ratio of active fire counts to deforestation, with active fires occurring over an area of 799,293 km2. Gross emissions from forest fires (989 ± 504 Tg CO2 year-1) alone are more than half as great as those from old-growth forest deforestation during drought years. We conclude that carbon emission inventories intended for accounting and developing policies need to take account of substantial forest fire emissions not associated to the deforestation process.

Tropical forest light regimes in a human-modified landscape.

Light is the key energy input for all vegetated systems. Forest light regimes are complex, with the vertical pattern of light within canopies influenced by forest structure. Human disturbances in tropical forests impact forest structure and hence may influence the light environment and thus competitiveness of different trees. In this study, we measured vertical diffuse light profiles along a gradient of anthropogenic disturbance, sampling intact, logged, secondary, and fragmented sites in the biodiversity hot spot of the Atlantic forest, southeast Brazil, using photosynthetically active radiation sensors and a novel approach with estimations of vertical light profiles from hemispherical photographs. Our results show clear differences in vertical light profiles with disturbance: Fragmented forests are characterized by rapid light extinction within their low canopies, while the profiles in logged forests show high heterogeneity and high light in the mid-canopy despite decades of recovery. The secondary forest showed similar light profiles to intact forest, but with a lower canopy height. We also show that in some cases the upper canopy layer and heavy liana infestations can severely limit light penetration. Light extinction with height above the ground and depth below the canopy top was highest in fragmented forest and negatively correlated with canopy height. The novel, inexpensive, and rapid methods described here can be applied to other sites to quantify rarely measured vertical light profiles.

Tree demography dominates long-term growth trends inferred from tree rings.

Understanding responses of forests to increasing CO2 and temperature is an important challenge, but no easy task. Tree rings are increasingly used to study such responses. In a recent study, van der Sleen et al. (2014) Nature Geoscience, 8, 4 used tree rings from 12 tropical tree species and find that despite increases in intrinsic water use efficiency, no growth stimulation is observed. This challenges the idea that increasing CO2 would stimulate growth. Unfortunately, tree ring analysis can be plagued by biases, resulting in spurious growth trends. While their study evaluated several biases, it does not account for all. In particular, one bias may have seriously affected their results. Several of the species have recruitment patterns, which are not uniform, but clustered around one specific year. This results in spurious negative growth trends if growth rates are calculated in fixed size classes, as 'fast-growing' trees reach the sampling diameter earlier compared to slow growers and thus fast growth rates tend to have earlier calendar dates. We assessed the effect of this 'nonuniform age bias' on observed growth trends and find that van der Sleen's conclusions of a lack of growth stimulation do not hold. Growth trends are - at least partially - driven by underlying recruitment or age distributions. Species with more clustered age distributions show more negative growth trends, and simulations to estimate the effect of species' age distributions show growth trends close to those observed. Re-evaluation of the growth data and correction for the bias result in significant positive growth trends of 1-2% per decade for the full period, and 3-7% since 1950. These observations, however, should be taken cautiously as multiple biases affect these trend estimates. In all, our results highlight that tree ring studies of long-term growth trends can be strongly influenced by biases if demographic processes are not carefully accounted for.

Does Cedrela always form annual rings? Testing ring periodicity across South America using radiocarbon dating.

KEY MESSAGE: Radiocarbon dating shows that Cedrela trees from Bolivia, Ecuador and Venezuela form one ring per year but Cedrela trees from Suriname form two rings per year. ABSTRACT: Tropical tree rings have the potential to yield valuable ecological and climate information, on the condition that rings are annual and accurately dated. It is important to understand the factors controlling ring formation, since regional variation in these factors could cause trees in different regions to form tree rings at different times. Here, we use 'bomb-peak' radiocarbon (14C) dating to test the periodicity of ring formation in Cedrela trees from four sites across tropical South America. We show that trees from Bolivia, Ecuador and Venezuela have reliably annual tree rings, while trees from Suriname regularly form two rings per year. This proves that while tree rings of a particular species may be demonstrably annual at one site, this does not imply that rings are formed annually in other locations. We explore possible drivers of variation in ring periodicity and find that Cedrela growth rhythms are most likely caused by precipitation seasonality, with a possible degree of genetic control. Therefore, tree-ring studies undertaken at new locations in the tropics require independent validation of the annual nature of tree rings, irrespective of how the studied species behaves in other locations.

A response to 'Trends in tropical tree growth: reanalysis confirms earlier findings'.

We recently demonstrated that growth trends from tree rings from Van Der Sleen et al. (Nature Geoscience, 8, 2015, 24) and Groenendijk et al. (Global Change Biology, 21, 2015, 3762) are affected by demographic biases. In particular, clustered age distributions led to a negative bias in their growth trends. In a response, they challenge our analysis and present an alternative correction approach. We here show that their arguments are incorrect and based on misunderstanding of our analysis and that their alternative approach does not work.

Seasonality and interannual variability of CH4 fluxes from the eastern Amazon Basin inferred from atmospheric mole fraction profiles.

The Amazon Basin is an important region for global CH4 emissions. It hosts the largest area of humid tropical forests, and around 20% of this area is seasonally flooded. In a warming climate it is possible that CH4 emissions from the Amazon will increase both as a result of increased temperatures and precipitation. To examine if there are indications of first signs of such changes we present here a 13 year (2000-2013) record of regularly measured vertical CH4 mole fraction profiles above the eastern Brazilian Amazon, sensitive to fluxes from the region upwind of Santarém (SAN), between SAN and the Atlantic coast. Using a simple mass balance approach, we find substantial CH4 emissions with an annual average flux of 52.8 ± 6.8 mg CH4 m-2 d-1 over an area of approximately 1 × 106 km2. Fluxes are highest in two periods of the year: in the beginning of the wet season and during the dry season. Using a CO:CH4 emission factor estimated from the profile data, we estimated a contribution of biomass burning of around 15% to the total flux in the dry season, indicating that biogenic emissions dominate the CH4 flux. This 13 year record shows that CH4 emissions upwind of SAN varied over the years, with highest emissions in 2008 (around 25% higher than in 2007), mainly during the wet season, representing 19% of the observed global increase in this year.

Regional atmospheric CO2 inversion reveals seasonal and geographic differences in Amazon net biome exchange.

Understanding tropical rainforest carbon exchange and its response to heat and drought is critical for quantifying the effects of climate change on tropical ecosystems, including global climate-carbon feedbacks. Of particular importance for the global carbon budget is net biome exchange of CO2 with the atmosphere (NBE), which represents nonfire carbon fluxes into and out of biomass and soils. Subannual and sub-Basin Amazon NBE estimates have relied heavily on process-based biosphere models, despite lack of model agreement with plot-scale observations. We present a new analysis of airborne measurements that reveals monthly, regional-scale (~1-8 × 10(6)  km(2) ) NBE variations. We develop a regional atmospheric CO2 inversion that provides the first analysis of geographic and temporal variability in Amazon biosphere-atmosphere carbon exchange and that is minimally influenced by biosphere model-based first guesses of seasonal and annual mean fluxes. We find little evidence for a clear seasonal cycle in Amazon NBE but do find NBE sensitivity to aberrations from long-term mean climate. In particular, we observe increased NBE (more carbon emitted to the atmosphere) associated with heat and drought in 2010, and correlations between wet season NBE and precipitation (negative correlation) and temperature (positive correlation). In the eastern Amazon, pulses of increased NBE persisted through 2011, suggesting legacy effects of 2010 heat and drought. We also identify regional differences in postdrought NBE that appear related to long-term water availability. We examine satellite proxies and find evidence for higher gross primary productivity (GPP) during a pulse of increased carbon uptake in 2011, and lower GPP during a period of increased NBE in the 2010 dry season drought, but links between GPP and NBE changes are not conclusive. These results provide novel evidence of NBE sensitivity to short-term temperature and moisture extremes in the Amazon, where monthly and sub-Basin estimates have not been previously available.

Variation in stem mortality rates determines patterns of above-ground biomass in Amazonian forests: implications for dynamic global vegetation models.

Understanding the processes that determine above-ground biomass (AGB) in Amazonian forests is important for predicting the sensitivity of these ecosystems to environmental change and for designing and evaluating dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). AGB is determined by inputs from woody productivity [woody net primary productivity (NPP)] and the rate at which carbon is lost through tree mortality. Here, we test whether two direct metrics of tree mortality (the absolute rate of woody biomass loss and the rate of stem mortality) and/or woody NPP, control variation in AGB among 167 plots in intact forest across Amazonia. We then compare these relationships and the observed variation in AGB and woody NPP with the predictions of four DGVMs. The observations show that stem mortality rates, rather than absolute rates of woody biomass loss, are the most important predictor of AGB, which is consistent with the importance of stand size structure for determining spatial variation in AGB. The relationship between stem mortality rates and AGB varies among different regions of Amazonia, indicating that variation in wood density and height/diameter relationships also influences AGB. In contrast to previous findings, we find that woody NPP is not correlated with stem mortality rates and is weakly positively correlated with AGB. Across the four models, basin-wide average AGB is similar to the mean of the observations. However, the models consistently overestimate woody NPP and poorly represent the spatial patterns of both AGB and woody NPP estimated using plot data. In marked contrast to the observations, DGVMs typically show strong positive relationships between woody NPP and AGB. Resolving these differences will require incorporating forest size structure, mechanistic models of stem mortality and variation in functional composition in DGVMs.

Hyperdominance in Amazonian forest carbon cycling.

While Amazonian forests are extraordinarily diverse, the abundance of trees is skewed strongly towards relatively few 'hyperdominant' species. In addition to their diversity, Amazonian trees are a key component of the global carbon cycle, assimilating and storing more carbon than any other ecosystem on Earth. Here we ask, using a unique data set of 530 forest plots, if the functions of storing and producing woody carbon are concentrated in a small number of tree species, whether the most abundant species also dominate carbon cycling, and whether dominant species are characterized by specific functional traits. We find that dominance of forest function is even more concentrated in a few species than is dominance of tree abundance, with only ≈1% of Amazon tree species responsible for 50% of carbon storage and productivity. Although those species that contribute most to biomass and productivity are often abundant, species maximum size is also influential, while the identity and ranking of dominant species varies by function and by region.